Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) updated its display equipment spending forecasts, and the company now expects OLED spending to recover only in 2022. In June 2018, DSCC estimated that the OLED equipment market will start to recover in 2020.
DSCC says that the whole display market is currently saturated after unprecedented equipment spending in 2016-2018 (an average of $22 billion per year for both LCDs and OLEDs) - for both mobile display and TV display production. Display production is expected to grow at 10% per year from 2018-2020 (as a result of the equipment orders in 2016-2018), and combined with lower operation margins and losses in the display market are causing display makers to be cautious with new capacity plans.
DSCC says that OLED equipment spending will start to recover in 2022 - with a surge of 79% from 2021, as the OLED industry will experience an increase in demand for mobile OLEDs, OLED TVs and foldable displays.
DSCC sees one bright spot in the next few years - spending on OLED TVs (in addition, specifically, to Samsung's QD-OLED TVs). The majority of OLED spending in 2019 will be for OLED TV production equipment, and in 2020-2022 OLED TV equipment will account for at least 30% of the whole OLED equipment market. In terms of total OLED capacity, LGD's increased OLED TV capacity will make it the world's top OLED producer by area in 2020.