DSCC lowers its OLED material revenue forecast, now sees a $2.06 billion market in 2024

DSCC updated its OLED material market forecasts, seeing a lower growth ahead. DSCC says the AMOLED stack material market will grow from $928 million in 2019 to $2.06 billion in 2024 in a CAGR of 17%. Only a couple of months ago DSCC estimated that the market in 2024 will reach $2.69 billion - and even these were reduced from earlier estimates due to COVID-19.

AMOLED material revenues, 2019-2024 - update on July 2020, DSCC

DSCC says that the main reason behind the reduction in its forecast is lower OLED TV capacity. The company now expects a slower ramp up at the Guangzhou fab, and LG's P-10 10.5-Gen fab is now removed from the forecast period.

DSCC details the production cost and prices of flexible and foldable OLED displays

DSCC posted an interesting article detailing their estimates for the production costs and prices of choice flexible and foldable AMOLED displays, in China and in Korea.

Flexible OLED production cost and price, Korea, Q2-2020 (DSCC)

We'll start with the chart above, which compares the prices and quotes of several flexible OLEDs produced by Samsung in Korea. DSCC says that as the profitability of Samsung's OLED business is highly dependent on fab utilization, it is currently losing money on this business as the yields in its flexible OLED lines are only 38% - and fixed costs such as personnel and depreciation cannot be decreased. Having said that, DSCC sees higher utilization in the next two quarters, which will result in profitability for SDC's OLED unit.

DSSC updates its OLED industry outlook, sees an oversupply situation for smartphone OLEDs till 2025

DSCC updated its capacity and demand outlook for the OLED industry. DSCC says that the oversupply situation for smartphone OLEDs will continue to effect the industry for years ahead.

OLED manufacturing input area by maker (2018-2025, DSCC)
According to DSCC the reason for the oversupply is Samsung's near-monopoly on flexible OLED phone panels - and the fact that the company keeps prices high and prefers high profit margins even though it leads to low utilization rates. DSCC sees China's capacity (which includes LG's Gunagzhou fab) share to rise from 5% in 2017 to 30% in 2020 and finally to 49% in 2025.

DSCC sees a sharp recovery in OLED fab utilization in Q3 2020

DSCC posted an update to their OLED (and LCD) fab capacity and utilization rate estimations. DSCC thought that Samsung's rigid OLED lines will remain in high utilization (almost 90%) in 2020, but the coronavirus pandemic lowered demand for OLEDs, and Q2 saw a sharp reduction in production of both flexible and rigid OLEDs. Looking into the rest of 2020, DSCC expects demand for OLED to rise.

LCD and OLED fab utilization rates (2017-2020, DSCC)

DSCC also sees flexible OLED capacity almost overtaking LTPS LCD capacity by the end of 2020. Both flexible and rigid OLED capacity is increasing, while LCD production is reduced (in 2019 JDI shutdown its Hakusan LCD plant which reduced LTPS LCD capacity by 7%).

DSCC: OLED revenues in Q1 2020 were $6.7 billion, will reach $33 billion in 2020

DSCC says that OLED revenues in Q1 2020 were $6.7 billion (up 24% from Q1 2019, but down 18% from Q4 2019). Both Samsung and BOE gained market share in the quarter, as LGD had a weak quarter.

OLED revenue share by producer (Q12018-Q12020, DSCC)

DSCC sees the entire OLED market reaching $33 billion in 2020 (up 18% from 2019). Smartphone OLED sales will reach $26.6 billion, mostly led by a growth in flexible OLED sales. The OLED TV market will grow 19% to 4 million units in 2020. DSCC sees the laptop OLED market increasing significantly in 2020.

DSCC details the iPhone 12 screens and OLED suppliers

DSCC posted an interesting blog post, in which they detail what they believe to be Apple's iPhone 12 smartphone family specifications.

Apple iPhone 12 range - specs and OLED suppliers (DSCC May 2020)

So we start with the iPhone 12, which will use a 5.42" 2348x1048 (476 PPI) flexible AMOLED display, produced by Samsung Display. DSCC believes the iPhone 12 will use a Y-OCTA integrated touch. DSCC believes that while BOE did not manage to get its panel to the iPhone 12, it may become a supplier in 2021 to the iPhone 12s - if all goes well with the iPhone 12 Max (see below).

DSCC - OLED material sales will grow from $951 million in 2019 to $2.69 billion in 2024

DSCC updated its OLED material market estimates, saying that AMOLED stack material sales will grow from $951 million in 2019 to $2.69 billion in 2024 - a CAGR of 23%. These new estimates take into account DSCC's reduced input area forecast due to the slowdown in demand cased by the Covid-19 pandemic.

AMOLED material revenues (2019-2024, DSCC)

DSCC says that incremental improvements in material utilization and price reductions, material costs per square meters will decline in the future. The unyielded cost of producing a square meter of a WOLED TV panel will decline from $95.21 in 2019 to $56.11 in 2024.

DSCC sees 5 million foldable OLEDs produced in 2020, over 77 million in 2025

DSCC says that the future will bring significant growth for foldable OLED displays - fueled by lower panel prices as production increases and yields improve, lower device prices and improved display reliability as devices improve.

Foldable OLED panel shipments forecast (2018-2025, DSCC)

DSCC sees meaningful improvements in devices starting in the second half of 2020. In 2020 around 5 million foldable devices (mostly smartphones) will ship, generating almost $1 billion in revenues. From 2020 to 2025, foldable display shipments will rise to 77 million units (a CAGR of 132%) and revenues will reach almost $8 billion (CAGR of 113%).

DSCC details their 2020 OLED market estimates

DSCC says that OLED area shipments will grow in 2020 to around 10.5 million square meters, up from 8 million square meters in 2019 - a growth of around 31%. In terms of revenues, the OLED market will grow 35% in 2020 to reach $37.6 billion. DSCC says that in 2020, 731 million OLEDs will be produced (up 27% from 2019).

OLED panels area shipments (2016-2020, DSCC)

Smartphone revenues will reach $30.7 billion in 2019 (up 35% from 2019) while TV revenues will grow 28% to $3.2 billion. Smartwatch revenues will increase 11% in 2020 to $2 billlion. The revenues for all other OLED applications are expected to increase by 69% in 2020 to $1.6 billion, mainly driven by laptop OLED displays.

DSCC: 577 million OLED panels shipped in 2019, generating $27.9 billion

DSCC says that OLED panel revenues in Q4 2019 reached $8.1 billion, down 2% from Q3 2019 and pretty much the same as in Q4 2018. In terms of units, DSCC says that in Q4 2019 124 million smartphone panels were shipped, 31 million wearable panels and 998,000 TV panels.

OLED panel revenue (2016-2019, DSCC)

Smartphone revenues in Q4 2019 were down 2% from Q4 2018 (due to lower average sales price for both rigid and flexible panels, the number of panels actually increased 4%), and revenues for TVs were up 30% (to $752 million). Smartwatches remain the 3rd largest market for OLED panels, and experienced strong growth in 2019, but it seems as if the growth may have plateaued (in Q4 the revenues were down 7% from last year).

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