DSCC: large-area OLED equipment sales to drop to zero in 2023, but resume in 2024 mostly for CSoT's inkjet printing panels

DSCC says that spending on equipment for the production of large area OLED panels (used in TVs and monitors) have decreased from $3 billion in 2019 to $2.05 billion in 2020, $1.47 billion in 2021 and will drop further to $1.42 billion in 2022.

LG B2 OLED TV photo

DSCC estimates that in 2023, the spending on such equipment will be zero. But OLED producers will resume buying large OLED equipment in 2024. Spending in 2024 will amount $2.01 billion, and in 2025 - $1.51 billion.

DSCC: OLED panels shipments declined 3% in Q2 2022, but revenues increased 12%

DSCC says that in Q2 2022, OLED panel revenues increased 12% compared to Q2 2021, while shipment units declined 3%. Fewer OLEDs were shipped, but revenues increased as we've seen an increased growth in high value panels (gaming, monitors, laptops, automotive, etc) and also an improved form factor adoption in smartphones.

OLED panel revenues and growth (2020Q2-2022Q2, DSCC)

In Q2 2022, smartphones remained the largest OLED application with a 76% unit and revenue share. OLED smartwatches had a 16% unit share (and a 6% revenue share), and OLED TVs had a 11% revenue share (up from 8% in Q1 2022).

DSCC sees a decline in smartphone OLED shipments and revenues in 2022

DSCC estimates that OLED smartphone display shipments will decrease 5% in 2022, to 592 million units. Flexible OLED shipments will rise by 2% (and will decline 10% in terms of revenues) but rigid OLED shipments will drop 14% (and revenues will decline 32%).

Smartphone OLED display shipments flexible vs rigid (2021 Q1 - 2022 Q4, DSCC)

DSCC sees the OLED smartphone market declining 16% in 2022 to $317 billion (smartphone sales), and explains that this is due to macroeconomic headwinds, weakened consumer demand and problems with supply chains and inventories.

DSCC: the OLED market will grow 2% in 2022, led by strong demand for IT panels

DSCC estimates that the OLED market will increase 2% in 2022, to reach $42 billion. Revenues for smartphones, the leading OLED application, will actually decline by 4%, but this will be offset by increases in other applications.

AMOLED revenues by applications (2019-2022, DSCC)

In fact, some applications will experience very fast growth: OLED monitors (641% unit growth, 279% revenue growth), OLED laptops (64% units, 39% revenue) and automotive displays (73% units, 68% revenue).

DSCC: OLED material sales to reach almost $3 billion by 2026

DSCC updated its OLED material market data, and it now sees AMOLED stack material revenues growing at a 18% from 2020 ($1.07 billion) to 2026 ($2.9 billion). If UDC actually manages to release a commercial blue PHOLED, the market could even exceed $3 billion.

OLED material revenues by application (2019-2026, DSCC)

The majority of OLED material revenues from from TV applications, but the market share of mobile devices is expected to grow and reach almost 50% by 2026.

DSCC sees 2.4 million OLED monitor panels shipping in 2026, up from 600,000 in 2022

DSCC says that it expects the advanced monitor category to grow 328% in 2022, to reach 3.6 million panels. OLED monitor shipments will jump 641%, to reach 600,000 units. The growth in OLED shipments will continue, but even in 2026, OLEDs will still take a small part of the market segmented, which is dominated by mini-LED LCDs.

OLED and miniLED monitor sales (2020-2026, DSCC)

In 2022, DSCC sees QD-OLED panels to grab a 27% market share, while WOLEDs have a lead with a 52% market share. In total, OLEDs will have a 15% market share of the advanced monitor market.

DSCC sees fast growth ahead for OLED displays in the notebook market, while miniLED LCDs will stagnate

DSCC says that in 2022, MiniLEDs will hold a 49% share in the advanced notebook market, while OLED will hold a 51% share. Looking into the future,MiniLEDs sales will increase slightly, while OLED sales will rise much faster, and by 2026 OLED shipments to the notebook market will reach over 40 million panels, and hold a 75% market share.

OLED and MiniLED notebook sales (DSCC, 2020-2026)

Looking at specific vendors, DSCC sees Asus as the leading OLED notebook maker, with a market share of 55%, followed by Lenovo at 17% and both Samsung and HP at 11%. The market ranking will remain pretty constant in 2022 as a whole.

DSCC: foldable smartphone shipments to increase 107% in 2022

DSCC says that 2.22 million foldable smartphones shipped in Q1 2022, up 571% from the first quarter of 2021. In Q4 2021, however, 4.2 million units shipped (a 47% decrease).

Foldable OLED shipments and production (DSCC, 2020-2022)

DSCC estimates that a total of 16 million foldable OLED phones will ship in 2022, a 107% increase compared to 2021. In terms of OLED panels, over 20 million will be produced and shipped in 2022.

DSCC: the OLED market remained flat in Q1 2022 at $9.5 billion

DSCC says that global OLED revenues in Q1 2022 were around $9.5 billion, the same as in Q1 2021, even though unit shipments declined 4%.

OLED market revenue 2020Q1-2022Q1 (DSCC)

Smartphone remained the leading OLED application, with a 79% revenue share, even though shipments decreased 8% (and revenues decreased 3%). The second largest application by shipments is wearables (16% in Q1 2022 by shipments and in 6% market share by revenues).

DSCC Increases its OLED market forecast, see $65 billion in revenues in 2026

DSCC has updated its OLED market forecasts, as it sees faster growth than what it estimated earlier this year. DSCC says the market will grow at a 9% CAGR from 2021 to 2026, to reach $65 billion in revenues in 2026.

OLED panel revenues by applications (2021-2026, DSCC)

Most of the growth will be driven by demand to IT panels - monitor panels will grow at 70% CAGR (revenue), laptop panels at 52% CAGR and tablet panels at 52% CAGR. DSCC sees OLED TV shipments growing at 13% (units) and 6% (revenue), while smartphone panel shipments will grow at a CAGR of 11% in the period (with revenues growing at 6% CAGR).

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