DSCC lowers its foldable OLED market forecasts - now sees 68 million panels shipped in 2023

DSCC updated its foldable OLED market forecasts, saying that it now expects the market to grow slower than it anticipated earlier this year. In 2019 DSCC sees 360,000 foldable panels produced in 2019, with less than 250,000 actual devices sold. By 2023, the market will grow to over 68 million units (a CAGR of 272%) generating over $8 billion in revenues.

Foldable OLED market forecast (2019-2023, DSCC August 2019)

Smartphones will remain the leading devices to adopt foldable OLEDs throughout the forecast period, and starting in 2020 DSCC sees clamshell designs with at least a 60% unit share. DSCC sees ultra-thin glass as becoming a significant player, with Samsung adopting SCHOTT UTG starting in 2020. Ultra-thin glass enables an aggressive folding radius, scratch resistance, hardness and a similar touch experience to current glass based displays.

DSCC sees the OLED material market growing from $1 billion in 2018 to over $2 billion in 2022

DSCC analysts say that OLED stack materials will grow from $1.04 billion in 2018 to over $2 billion in 2022 - a CAGR of 17%.

OLED material revenue by application (2017-2023, DSCC)

DSCC says that up until now it greatly underestimated Novaled's revenues, and it now says that Novaled generated revenues of $97 million in 2017 and $122 million in 2018. Novaled is the third largest OLED material company by revenue - following Universal Display and Merck. The three companies combined will hold a market share of 56% in 2023.

DSCC: smartwatch OLED display shipments to grow 28% in 2019

DSCC says that shipments of smartwatch OLED displays grew 124% in the first quarter of 2019, and the company expects yearly shipments to grow 28% in 2019 to reach 63.9 million units.

Smartwatch OLED shipments (2018-2019, DSCC)

Even though each single display is small (around 1.4-inch), smartwatches are the third largest OLED application in terms of revenues (after smartphones and TVs) and total revenues will reach $1.5 billion in 2019.

DSCC: Samsung, Apple and Huawei are the world's top flexible AMOLED smartphone customers

DSCC published an interesting note, detailing the world's top 10 devices by flexible AMOLED sales in the first half of 2019. The list contains only three vendors: Samsung, Apple and Huawei.

Huawei Mate P30 Pro photo

Total flexible AMOLED revenues for these ten devices are almost $4.7 billion, and Samsung phones account for 53% ($2.5 billion). Apple has only 2 leading models, but accounts for 30% of the revenues ($1.4 billion) and Huawei phones generated $723 million in flexible AMOLED revenues.

DSCC updates its display fab utilization rates report

DSCC has published an update to its display fab utilization rate report. DSCC says that rigid OLED roduction has remained strong since March 2019 (following a low period before) mostly due to a reduced price gap with LCD displays, larger screen sizes in 2019 OLED smartphones and aggressive smartphone pricing in China.

Display technology fab utilization rates (DSCC, 2018 to June 2019)

Flexible OLED fab utilization remains low but DSCC sees an improvement in June to 42% up from around 30% all over 2019. OLED TV fab utilization remains at very high levels (100%, in fact) and will continue to be high in June.

DSCC: OLED equipment spending will rebound in 2020

DSCC estimates that the mobile OLED equipment will rebound in 2020 - up 461% in fact to $8.2 billion, after falling 88% in 2019.

LCD and OLED equipment spending (2016-2020, DSCC)
In 2020, OLED spending will account for 56% of the total display equipment market spending, basically returning to the levels we saw in 2017-2018.

DSCC: AMOLED revenues to reach over $52 billion in 2023

DSCC says that OLED market revenues will grow from $26.5 billion in 2018 to $28.7 billion in 2019 and over $52 billion by 2023. The largest application will remain smartphone displays, but several other applications will generate over $1 billion in 2023 - TVs, tablets, notebooks and monitors. By area of production, TV displays will surpass smartphone displays in 2021.

AMOLED shipments by application (2017-2023, DSCC)

Samsung is still (and will remain so) the dominant AMOLED display producer, even though its market share will drop from 97% in Q1 2018 to 81% in Q4 2019. In Q1 2019 Visionox surpassed LGD to become the 2nd largest AMOLED producer (but most of Visionox's panels are low-end 5.5-inch panels). DSCC expects LGD to regain its number 2 position in the second half of 2019. BOE is the third player and will remain so following its supply agreement with Huawei.

DSCC sees 1.65 million foldable OLED panels shipped in 2019, will grow to 80 million by 2023

DSCC released its latest forecast for the foldable OLED market. According to DSCC 1.65 million foldable OLED panels will ship in 2019 - which will grow to 60 million panels in 2022 and just over 80 million panels in 2023.

Foldable OLED shipments forecast (2019-2023, DSCC)

DSCC says that foldable devices should "inevitably succeed" as device makers see these devices as a way to boost high-end smartphone revenues as this market has plateaued. DSCC says that the forecast may be even cautious - although if we compare to DSCC's previous foldable OLED estimates released at the end of 2018, they have lowered their predictions slightly.

DSCC: OLED equipment spending fell 7% in 2018, will fall a further 59% in 2019

DSCC says that in 2018 OLED display equipment spending fell 7% compared to 2017 to reach $12.5 billion. In 2019, DSCC predicts that OLED spending will fall a further 59% as poor mobile OLED fab utilization is still low.

Display equipment spending (2016 - 2023, DSCC)Looking further in 2019, DSCC sees OLED spending to rebound by 111% to $10.9 billion (still quite lower than in 2017) but drop 40% again in 2021 - to only $6.2 billion.

DSCC details its estimation of smartphone OLED producers market share

DSCC released the interesting (but confusing, note the legend starts at 350M) chart below, detailing the market share of smartphone OLED producers in 2016-2019. As can be seen Samsung will remain the dominant producer, but its market share in 2019 will drop from 94% in 2018 to around 85%.

OLED shipments by producer (2016-2019, DSCC)

Non-SDC shipments will increase to 73 million units in 2019 - led by LG Display (~25 million units), BOE (around 20 million) and Visionox (around 15 million units).