DSCC: OLED equipment spending to rebound in 2020, but decline again in 2021

DSCC says that Q3 2018 was a record quarter for display equipment spending, as sales reached $7.8 billion billion in the quarter - up 13% from Q3 2017. In the quarter five new 6-Gen OLED lines were installed in addition to a 10.5-Gen LCD fab.The top 5 equipment vendors, according to DSCC, were Canon (13.1%), Applied materials (9.6%), Tokyo Electron, Nikon and SFA Engineering.

Display equipment spending by technology (2016-2022, DSCC)

Despite the record quarter, total display spending will fall 9% in 2018 (to $21.6 billion). OLED equipment spending is expected to drop 44% in 2019 to $7 billion as mobile OLED spending slows. DSCC says that OLED spending will rebound in 2020, and will increase by 50% to reach $10.5 billion. In 2021, DSCC sees OLED spending declining again, and then rebound in 2022.

DSCC: AMOLED revenues reached $8 billion in Q3 2018

DSCC says that the OLED market saw a strong recovery in shipments in Q3 2018 - with total revenues increasing 80% from Q2 2018 (and 45% from Q3 2017) to $8 billion. The largest OLED market is the smartphone display market - which reached $6.9 million in the quarter.

OLED panel revenues, 2016-2018 (DSCC, Nov 2018)

DSCC expects revenues to reach $8.2 billion in Q4 2018 - a decrease of 7% compared to last year (but an increase of 3% from Q3). The main reason for the decline is slower Apple iPhone sales. TV revenues continue to increase strongly - to reach $585 million in Q4 (up 80% from 2017). The fastest growth was in the wearables sector - which grew to $317 million.

DSCC: the OLED material market will reach $2 billion in 2022

DSCC has updated its OLED material market forecast, saying that it expects the market to grow from $829 million in 2017 to $2.04 billion in 2022 (a 20% annual CAGR).

OLED material revenue forecast by application (2016-2022, DSCC)

DSCC recently revised its OLED market estimation - as it lowered its forecast of mobile application demand while increasing its outlook for OLED TV capacity. Total OLED capacity is still expected to increase almost 4X from 2017 to 2022. DSCC expects OLED TV material revenues to surpass mobile OLED revenues by 2022.

DSCC expects extremely fast growth for foldable OLEDs

DSCC states that following the launch of the first foldable OLED devices in 2019, the market is expected to experience a very fast growth - by 2022 the market will reach 63 million units, up from 3 million in 2019 (a CAGR of 173%). In terms of revenues, the market will reach $8.9 billion by 2022 (151% CAGR).

Foldable OLED shipment forecasts (2019-2022, DSCC)

It is a bit confusing that DSCC segments this market by device type - as foldable OLEDs will probably merge these segments together (i.e. a phone/tablet, tablet/notebook, wearable/smartphone, etc).

DSCC: Samsung to begin pilot QD-OLED production in 2019

DSCC estimates that Samsung will begin pilot production of QD-OLEDs in 2019, with a capacity of 5,000 monthly 8.5-Gen substrates. If this is successful, Samsung will double the capacity in 2020 and add a further 30,000 yearly substrates in 2021 and again in 2022. Material revenues for Samsung's QD-OLED TVs will reach $56 million in 2022.

Material revenue forecast for QD-OLED TVs (DSCC, 2016-2022)

DSCC admits, though, that as Samsung faces several technical challenges before it could launch commercial QD-OLED TVs, its forecast could be way off - there's a good chance that SDC will cancel the project, or it could increase capacity at a much faster rate than DSCC estimates and even scale-up production to 10.5-Gen.

DSCC: flexible OLEDS carry a 5X premium over LTPS LCDs

Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) estimates that a 6" flexible OLED Module (with a touch layer) costs around $78 (and will drop slightly to $76 by the end of the year). Meanwhile the price of a similar rigid OLED is around $26 and an LTPS LCD is around $16.

Smartphone OLED Vs. LCD pricing (2017-2018, DSCC)

LCD producers have lowered the prices dramatically in the last two years (from $29 in early 2017 to $16 today), and rigid OLED producers have been forced the lower their prices as well (from $42 in early 2017 to $26 today).

DSCC lowers its OLED revenue forecast for 2019-2022, sees the market at $50 billion in 2022

Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) updated its AMOLED market forecast, and the company now expects revenues to grow from $26 billion in 2018 to $50 billion in 2022.

OLED market revenue & growth (2016-2022, DSCC)

DSCC sees fast growth for the OLED market, driven by flexible and foldable displays - and the flexible OLED market will grow at a 32% CAGR from 2018 to 2022. Only a few months ago, though, DSCC estimated that revenues in 2022 will reach $57.2 billion by 2022.

DSCC updates its display equipment market forecast, says recovery is not expected until 2022

Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) updated its display equipment spending forecasts, and the company now expects OLED spending to recover only in 2022. In June 2018, DSCC estimated that the OLED equipment market will start to recover in 2020.

Display equipment spending forecast (2016-2022, DSCC)

DSCC says that the whole display market is currently saturated after unprecedented equipment spending in 2016-2018 (an average of $22 billion per year for both LCDs and OLEDs) - for both mobile display and TV display production. Display production is expected to grow at 10% per year from 2018-2020 (as a result of the equipment orders in 2016-2018), and combined with lower operation margins and losses in the display market are causing display makers to be cautious with new capacity plans.

DSCC: OLED area shipments on the rise, driven by OLED TVs

DSCC says that OLED area shipments grew 30% in the first half of 2018, mostly driven by strong growth in OLED TV shipments (a 98% increase from last year in term of area shipments). Smartphone OLED shipments stagnated in the first half, but growth will resume in the second half of the year - area shipments will grow 47% compared to H2 2017.

OLED shipment area by application (2016-2018, DSCC)

DSCC estimates that OLED TV panel revenues in the first half of 2018 grew 80% compared to the first half of 2017. Modern price declines were offset by a rise in unit shipments.