DSCC: BOE managed to triple its flexible OLED production yields, increases capacity to over 1 million flexible OLED panels per month

Market research firm DSCC says that BOE managed to dramatically increase its yields - which have tripled to over 30% by the end of 2018. The company is expected to continue and improve its yields which will reach, according to DSCC, to almost 60% by the end of 2019.

Flexible OLED yields, Q1 18 - Q4 19, BOE vs SDC (DSCC)
The increased yields enabled BOE to increase its flexible OLED production at its first B7 line from 125,000 units per month in Q3 2018 to almost 1 million panels per month in Q4 2018. BOE's main customer is Huawei - with its Mate 20 Pro. The increased yields means that panel production costs are falling - and DSCC actually expects BOE's production costs to fall below SDC's by the end of 2019 as BOE's fab costs are subsidized - as can be seen in the image below.

DSCC: the OLED market will grow 19% in 2019 to reach $31 billion in revenues

DSCC estimates that the AMOLED market will grow 19% in 2019 to reach $31 billion, up from $26.5 billion in 2018. OLED revenues will continue to grow and reach $48.8 billion in 2022 (a CAGR of 16%).

OLED panel revenue by type, (2016-2022, DSCC)

Looking at OLED unit shipments and area production, 2019 will see a 22% growth in unit shipments to 610 million panels and a 35% growth in area to 9 million square meters. Area shipments will grow faster than revenues as OLED selling prices will continue to decline - and as OLED TVs take up a larger share of the OLED market.

DSCC: OLED equipment spending to rebound in 2020, but decline again in 2021

DSCC says that Q3 2018 was a record quarter for display equipment spending, as sales reached $7.8 billion billion in the quarter - up 13% from Q3 2017. In the quarter five new 6-Gen OLED lines were installed in addition to a 10.5-Gen LCD fab.The top 5 equipment vendors, according to DSCC, were Canon (13.1%), Applied materials (9.6%), Tokyo Electron, Nikon and SFA Engineering.

Display equipment spending by technology (2016-2022, DSCC)

Despite the record quarter, total display spending will fall 9% in 2018 (to $21.6 billion). OLED equipment spending is expected to drop 44% in 2019 to $7 billion as mobile OLED spending slows. DSCC says that OLED spending will rebound in 2020, and will increase by 50% to reach $10.5 billion. In 2021, DSCC sees OLED spending declining again, and then rebound in 2022.

DSCC: AMOLED revenues reached $8 billion in Q3 2018

DSCC says that the OLED market saw a strong recovery in shipments in Q3 2018 - with total revenues increasing 80% from Q2 2018 (and 45% from Q3 2017) to $8 billion. The largest OLED market is the smartphone display market - which reached $6.9 million in the quarter.

OLED panel revenues, 2016-2018 (DSCC, Nov 2018)

DSCC expects revenues to reach $8.2 billion in Q4 2018 - a decrease of 7% compared to last year (but an increase of 3% from Q3). The main reason for the decline is slower Apple iPhone sales. TV revenues continue to increase strongly - to reach $585 million in Q4 (up 80% from 2017). The fastest growth was in the wearables sector - which grew to $317 million.

DSCC: the OLED material market will reach $2 billion in 2022

DSCC has updated its OLED material market forecast, saying that it expects the market to grow from $829 million in 2017 to $2.04 billion in 2022 (a 20% annual CAGR).

OLED material revenue forecast by application (2016-2022, DSCC)

DSCC recently revised its OLED market estimation - as it lowered its forecast of mobile application demand while increasing its outlook for OLED TV capacity. Total OLED capacity is still expected to increase almost 4X from 2017 to 2022. DSCC expects OLED TV material revenues to surpass mobile OLED revenues by 2022.

DSCC expects extremely fast growth for foldable OLEDs

DSCC states that following the launch of the first foldable OLED devices in 2019, the market is expected to experience a very fast growth - by 2022 the market will reach 63 million units, up from 3 million in 2019 (a CAGR of 173%). In terms of revenues, the market will reach $8.9 billion by 2022 (151% CAGR).

Foldable OLED shipment forecasts (2019-2022, DSCC)

It is a bit confusing that DSCC segments this market by device type - as foldable OLEDs will probably merge these segments together (i.e. a phone/tablet, tablet/notebook, wearable/smartphone, etc).

DSCC: Samsung to begin pilot QD-OLED production in 2019

DSCC estimates that Samsung will begin pilot production of QD-OLEDs in 2019, with a capacity of 5,000 monthly 8.5-Gen substrates. If this is successful, Samsung will double the capacity in 2020 and add a further 30,000 yearly substrates in 2021 and again in 2022. Material revenues for Samsung's QD-OLED TVs will reach $56 million in 2022.

Material revenue forecast for QD-OLED TVs (DSCC, 2016-2022)

DSCC admits, though, that as Samsung faces several technical challenges before it could launch commercial QD-OLED TVs, its forecast could be way off - there's a good chance that SDC will cancel the project, or it could increase capacity at a much faster rate than DSCC estimates and even scale-up production to 10.5-Gen.

DSCC: flexible OLEDS carry a 5X premium over LTPS LCDs

Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) estimates that a 6" flexible OLED Module (with a touch layer) costs around $78 (and will drop slightly to $76 by the end of the year). Meanwhile the price of a similar rigid OLED is around $26 and an LTPS LCD is around $16.

Smartphone OLED Vs. LCD pricing (2017-2018, DSCC)

LCD producers have lowered the prices dramatically in the last two years (from $29 in early 2017 to $16 today), and rigid OLED producers have been forced the lower their prices as well (from $42 in early 2017 to $26 today).

DSCC lowers its OLED revenue forecast for 2019-2022, sees the market at $50 billion in 2022

Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) updated its AMOLED market forecast, and the company now expects revenues to grow from $26 billion in 2018 to $50 billion in 2022.

OLED market revenue & growth (2016-2022, DSCC)

DSCC sees fast growth for the OLED market, driven by flexible and foldable displays - and the flexible OLED market will grow at a 32% CAGR from 2018 to 2022. Only a few months ago, though, DSCC estimated that revenues in 2022 will reach $57.2 billion by 2022.

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