DSCC lowers its OLED material revenue forecast, now sees a $2.06 billion market in 2024

DSCC updated its OLED material market forecasts, seeing a lower growth ahead. DSCC says the AMOLED stack material market will grow from $928 million in 2019 to $2.06 billion in 2024 in a CAGR of 17%. Only a couple of months ago DSCC estimated that the market in 2024 will reach $2.69 billion - and even these were reduced from earlier estimates due to COVID-19.

AMOLED material revenues, 2019-2024 - update on July 2020, DSCC

DSCC says that the main reason behind the reduction in its forecast is lower OLED TV capacity. The company now expects a slower ramp up at the Guangzhou fab, and LG's P-10 10.5-Gen fab is now removed from the forecast period.

DSCC says that unyielded stack cost per square meter for LG's WOLED TV production will drop from $88.14 in 2019 to $52.68 in 2024 - which will assist LG in reducing its OLED TV prices. DSCC says that Ink-Jet printing OLED TV panel will be highly effective in materials, and material cost per meter will be 50% lower compared to WOLED material costs. Samsung's QD-OLED panels will also be around 30-40% lower in material costs compared to LG's WOLED.

AMOLED material revenues by deposition type (2019-2024, DSCC)

These are all unyielded comparisons - WOLED is a much more mature technology and QD-OLED and IJP yields will be lower. In addition in QD-OLED there is a requirement for high cost color converters (QDs) - which will be more expensive than the color filters used by LG's WOLED.

Ink-Jet printing will remain a relatively small niche during the forecast period. JOLED is already producing panels, but this is in low volume. The main breakthrough will happen in 2024 as DSCC expects CSOT’s T9 Gen 8.5 fab to start mass production of inkjet printed OLED TVs in 2024.

AMOLED material revenues by supplier (2019-2024, DSCC)

Posted: Jul 30,2020 by Ron Mertens