UBI Research says that while LEDs are currently the most prominent next-gen lighting devices, OLED panel shipments will grow quickly in coming years, and they see the market growing from around $100 million in 2016 to over $2.7 billion in 2020. By 2025, OLED lighting will grab about 10% of the total lighting market.
UBI says that by increasing production capacity and using a Gen-5 fab (they actually say 1270x1270 mm substrates) a 100x100 mm OLED panel can be produced for $5 or lower. In about 10 years, this will drop to $2.5 per panel - which is in line with current costs of incandescent and fluorescent lights ($1 to $3). It is actually cheaper than current LED prices (which are around $10 for a comparable device). Of course LED prices will also drop in 10 years, but UBI still sees the market expanding very quickly.
The company is still the most optimistic OLED lighting analyst - but note that only a few months ago UBI estimated the OLED lighting market at $4.7 billion in 2020. IDTechEx see a $200 million panel market in 2019 that will grow to $1.9 billion in 2025. Cintelliq sees OLED competing with LEDs in 2016, and 500 million 100x100 mm OLED lighting panels produced in 2023.
IHS estimates the current OLED lighting market (at the panel level) at $2.7 million in 2014, and says that the market will only reach $26 million by 2020.