Omdia (IHS)

According to Omdia, sales of OLED panels in sizes over 9-inch (the company refers to these as Large Area Displays) will increase 124.6% in 2024. In 2023, the market contracted 25.7%, with the only exception being OLED monitor panels that grew in shipments.

In 2024, Omdia says that all application areas will see an increase in shipments - TVs, monitors, tablets and laptops. Only the company's "other" category will see a decrease in sales. In particular, tablet OLED shipments are projected to increase by 294% compared to 2023, largely due to Apple's adoption of OLEDs in the 2024 iPad Pro tablets. Laptop OLED sales will increase 152.6%, and monitors OLEDs will increase 139.9%. Finally, OLED TV panel shipments will increase 34.8%.

Omdia estimates that in 2024, OLED technology has finally overtaken LCD and now holds a market share of 53% in the smartphone display market. OLED penetration is expected to increase to 56% in Q3 2024.

Omdia further says that smartphone shipments have increased 5% in 2023 to reach 1.45 billion units, and the market will continue rising in 2024. 

Omdia estimates that growth will return to the OLED materials market after two years of slow OLED TV sales. Material sales will increase to over $2 billion in 2024, for the first time, and will continue growing to reach $2.6 billion by 2028.

Omdia sees an improvement in the utilization of LG's WOLED fabs in 2024. LGD's E4 line in Paju, for example, have rebounded to over 60% in Q1 2024, up from only 33% at the end of 2023. The company's WOLED line in Guangzhou also increased its utilization to over 50%. 

Omdia says that it expects the global smartwatch display market to reach 359 million units in 2024 (up from 259 million units in 2022). OLEDs hold a 37% market share (132 million units).

Omdia says that the leading smartwatch OLED producers, in the first half of 2024, are LG Display (Apple's main supplier), Everdisplay and Tianma - which together hold a 53% market share. China-based wearable OLED production accounts to 64% of the total market.

Omdia says that China's OLED makers have been making rapid progress with their foldable OLED capabilities, to the point that in the first half of 2024, China's production of foldable OLED panels will surpass Korea's.

Omdia predicts that in the first half of 2024, Samsung Display will produce 5.7 million panels, while China's producers will produce 6.4 million panels. The market is set to grow quickly, from 10.7 million units in 2021 to 30 million panels in 2024. The market leader remains Samsung (47% in 2024H1), followed by BOE (40%), Visionox (9%) and TCL CSoT (4%).

Omdia estimates that OLED display shipments for laptops and tablets will grow from around 8 million units in 2023 to around 99 million units in 2031, a CAGR of 37%. We have already seen major laptop and tablet brands starting to adopt OLEDs in their latest devices, including Apple and Microsoft just recently.

Omdia says that in 2022 and 2023, the demand for laptops and tablets actually slowed, but new laptops with AI capabilities are now being introduced, and Omdia expects a recovery in demand for mobile PCs following the discontinuation of Windows 10 support in the second half of 2025.

Omdia says that shipments of OLED displays in tablets are set to grow in the future, rising from around 3.8 million in 2023 to 35 million in 2031. 2024 will see a 315% jump in shipments as Apple starts to adopt OLEDs in its tablets.

Interestingly, Omdia sees an increase in adoption of a 'hybrid OLED' structure (reaching a market share of 85.1% in 2031), which the company defines as a glass-based OLED with a thin-film encapsulation. This hybrid design is lower in cost compared to a flexible OLEDs, while still achieving high performance and a thin design. 

Omdia says that OLED monitor shipments rose 415% in 2023, and the trend will continue in 2024, with a 123% increase over 2023. Total shipments in 2024 will reach 1.84 million units, driven mostly by Samsung Electronics and LG Display.

The main market for OLED Monitors is high-end gaming, especially esports. The entire monitor market has seen a downturn in 2023 and 2023, but Omdia says the market is expected to recover slowly in 2024. 

Omdia released its small and medium (9-inch and lower) AMOLED market share information for 2023, saying that even though Samsung's market share was lower than 50% for the first time, it stills leads the market by a large margin, with a 43% market share. 

Samsung is followed by BOE (15%), LG Display (10%), Visionox (9%) and Tianma (8%). The total market reached 842 million units, a growth of 11% over 2022. Omdia says that the China-based OLED makers have been expanding their capacity and improving the quality of the produced panels, and are securing orders from domestic smartphone brands. 

Omdia updated its forecast for Apple's OLED adoption in its IT devices (iPads and Notebooks), saying that the company will begin the OLED transition with the 11-inch and 12.9-inch iPad Pro due later in 2024.

Samsung Display and LG Display will be Apple's suppliers, and the two companies will adopt new technologies. SDC will produce rigid glass based LTPO tandem AMOLEDs and LG will produce flexible AMOLEDs, at its E6 line. Omdia estimates that Apple will pay $80-90 for the 11" displays and $120-130 for the 12.9" displays, without the touch and cover glass (which will add $20-30 per display).