Omdia (IHS)

Omdia says that the large-area FPD TV market (OLED and LCD) suffered from low demand in early 2023, but improved in Q3 2023. LCD TV prices increased, and companies were profitable again. However Omdia estimates that demand will soften again, and the market will suffer from over supply in Q4 2023 and the first half of 2024.

Omdia says that a supply/demand ratio of 10% represents a balanced market. This won't be achieved in the near future. Since the pandemic supply shortages, there's currently enough factory capacity to meet demand, and then some. The growth in demand enabled display makers to increase fab utilization from around 60% in early 2023 to around 85% in July 2023. However, fab utilization is expected to decline to around 75% in Q4 2023.

Omdia released its latest analysis on the global large-area display market (LCDs and OLEDs combined), saying that it sees a decline in unit shipments of 7.3% from 2022. This is a sharper decline that what Omdia estimated a few months ago, as the demand continues to slide.

Interestingly, looking at the total market by display area, 2023 will see a slight increase (0.5%) over 2022, this is mostly because consumers are buying larger TVs and larger gaming monitors.

Market research firm Omdia says that according to its latest forecast, the OLED market will grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2022 to 2030, by total display production area.

The main OLED application is smartphone displays, and Omdia says that in 2022 the penetration of OLED displays into that market reached 42%. The market share of OLED smartphones will rise steadily in the future. The OLED TV market is experiencing a slowdown, but Omdia says it will resume growth in 2024.

According to market research firm Omdia, the OLED automotive displays market is set to grow to $2.17 billion in 2027, up from $481.75 in 2023 (that's a 4.5X growth in sales). In terms of shipments, the market will reach 9 million units in 2027, up from 1.48 million in 2023 (a 7X growth). 

Omdia is actually more optimistic about the automotive market than it was last year, as the industry is growing faster than expected. There is a rapid uptake of AMOLED displays in premium cars, as the displays offer a better image quality, lower power consumption and lower weight compared to LCDs, which is all very important for electric cars. 

Omdia released its latest IT OLED display forecasts, with some interesting projections. 

The company sees very nice growth ahead for OLED displays in the IT market, with shipments rising from around 9.7 million units in 2022 to over 70 million units in 2028. Most of the growth will come from adoption in laptops, but tablet adoption will also increase sharply.

Omdia says that the utilization at display production fabs is on the rise, recovering from 66% in January 2023 to 74% in the second quarter, as demand for TVs, laptops, monitors and smartphones is on the rise.

However, this is mostly true for LCD displays. OLED producers are still facing low demand, and fab utilization remains below 60%. The industry has yet to recover from the oversupply it experienced in 2022. This is true for both mobile AMOLED displays and OLED TV panels.

Omdia says that small-size (under 9") AMOLED display shipments dropped 6% in 2022 to 762 million units, due to lower demand for smartphones.

Samsung remains the leading AMOLED maker, with a 56% market share (by unit), down from 61% in 2021, with BOE in the second plane (12%) and LG Display in the third place (11%). The next producers by shipments are Visionox and Everdisplay.

Market analysts from Omdia say that the XR market (which they define as a combination of AR, VR and MR) will grow from 24 million units in 2023 to almost 90 million units in 2028, a CAGR of 67%. In terms of revenues, the market (XR displays) will reach $1.15 billion in 2023.

As you can see from the graph above, VR applications still take up most of the market, and Omdia does not seem to think AR technology will reach mass markets soon, maybe only in 2028.

Omdia posted an interesting market analysis, saying that Samsung Display is looking to increase its OLED TV market share, and will push QD-OLED TV shipments strong in 2023. SDC will increase shipments by 141% in 2023, and will continue to increase production.

Samsung's production increase will be met by an increased number of suppliers - not just Samsung and Sony as in 2022, but other companies will start offering QD-OLED TVs (Philips, TCL and Sharp).

Omdia says that global TV shipments reached 204.5 million units in 2022, down from 213 million in 2021 and 225 in 2020, where the COVID-19 pandemic expanded demand for TVs.

Omdia expects a recovery in 2023, especially in OLED TVs and the super-large TV segment.