Omdia (IHS)

Omdia released its latest IT OLED display forecasts, with some interesting projections. 

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The company sees very nice growth ahead for OLED displays in the IT market, with shipments rising from around 9.7 million units in 2022 to over 70 million units in 2028. Most of the growth will co`me from adoption in laptops, but tablet adoption will also increase sharply.

Omdia says that the utilization at display production fabs is on the rise, recovering from 66% in January 2023 to 74% in the second quarter, as demand for TVs, laptops, monitors and smartphones is on the rise.

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However, this is mostly true for LCD displays. OLED producers are still facing low demand, and fab utilization remains below 60%. The industry has yet to recover from the oversupply it experienced in 2022. This is true for both mobile AMOLED displays and OLED TV panels.

Omdia says that small-size (under 9") AMOLED display shipments dropped 6% in 2022 to 762 million units, due to lower demand for smartphones.

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Samsung remains the leading AMOLED maker, with a 56% market share (by unit), down from 61% in 2021, with BOE in the second plane (12%) and LG Display in the third place (11%). The next producers by shipments are Visionox and Everdisplay.

Market analysts from Omdia say that the XR market (which they define as a combination of AR, VR and MR) will grow from 24 million units in 2023 to almost 90 million units in 2028, a CAGR of 67%. In terms of revenues, the market (XR displays) will reach $1.15 billion in 2023.

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As you can see from the graph above, VR applications still take up most of the market, and Omdia does not seem to think AR technology will reach mass markets soon, maybe only in 2028.

Omdia posted an interesting market analysis, saying that Samsung Display is looking to increase its OLED TV market share, and will push QD-OLED TV shipments strong in 2023. SDC will increase shipments by 141% in 2023, and will continue to increase production.

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Samsung's production increase will be met by an increased number of suppliers - not just Samsung and Sony as in 2022, but other companies will start offering QD-OLED TVs (Philips, TCL and Sharp).

Omdia says that global TV shipments reached 204.5 million units in 2022, down from 213 million in 2021 and 225 in 2020, where the COVID-19 pandemic expanded demand for TVs.

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Omdia expects a recovery in 2023, especially in OLED TVs and the super-large TV segment.

Market research firm Omdia says that the global smartphone market is shrinking, and is set to fall 18% in 2022 to 1.425 billion units. LTPS AMOLED display shipments will decline 19% compared to 2021 to 44 million units (LCDs will decline even faster at 26%).

The only segmented that Omdia says is growing is the LTPO AMOLED one, with a fast growth of 94% in 2022 (to 148 million units), and will continue to grow in 2023 (25%).

Omdia says that the market share of Korea's OLED producers, SDC and LGD is eroding, as Chinese OLED makers increase their OLED shipments. A main driver is Apple's increased iPhone AMOLED orders from BOE.

Omdia says that BOE's market share has increased from 5.6% in 2019 to almost 12% in 2022 (first quarter). The market share of all AMOLED makers in China is now above 20%, from from less than 10% in 2019.

Market research firm Omdia sees higher demand for OLED solutions for the automotive sector. Omdia says shipments of OLED panels will grow from around 500,000 units in 2022 to almost 6 million units by 2028.

Currently most automotive makers that use OLEDs adopt flexible panels, but Omdia actually sees the adoption of rigid glass-based OLEDs (single stack) growing faster than that of flexible OLEDs (tandem stack), and by 2027 the share of rigid automotive OLEDs will be higher than that of flexible ones. This is an interesting forecast.

Market research firm Omdia says that LG Electronics shipped over 4 million OLED TVs in 2021, more than double its shipments in 2020. In the fourth quarter alone, LGE shipped 1.41 million OLED TVs.

Omdia expects LG to double its shipments again in 2022 and reach sales of over 8 million TVs. The total OLED TV market, according to Omdia, was 6.5 million OLED TVs in 2021 (LGE holds a 62% market share).