Nanomarkets posted an interesting article regarding the OLED lighting market. They present three scenarios. The first one is mass adoption of OLED lighting for the general consumer market. Nanomarket says that while the technology is advancing quickly, for mass market to happen, the OLED makers will need to make massive investment in production fabs.

Nanomarkets says say that an "OLED lighting champion" company must emerge to make this happen. They seem to think that this scenario does not seem likely in the next few years. Possible champions include Philips, Osram, Panasonic, GE, LG and Samsung. Nanomarkets does not believe that any one of those companies will be able to make a risky decision to invest the billions of dollars required.

The second scenario is that OLED lighting will grow but remain a niche market. There are some possible niche markets (for example automotive market or office lighting). But because the market will remain small, the companies will not invest in mass production and so prices will not drop enough. Basically in this scenario the market will not change much from its present state.

The final scenario spells the death of OLED lighting. Earning money from niche markets is difficult and the companies will slowly abandon the technology. Nanomarkets does not think this the third scenario is the likely scenario, but it is a possibility.




Hasn't LG already committed to the first scenario? Your own article suggests as much.

This may be true when LG

This may be true when LG actually starts constructing the new line. Also a Gen-5 line isn't necessarily a "mass production fab". Then again, in their article Nanomarkets indeed say that LG is one of the leading candidates for an OLED lighting champion...

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