LUX Research released a new OLED lighting report (Finding the End of the Tunnel for OLED Lighting) in which they say that OLED lighting will remain a small niche player in the future - in fact in 2020 worldwide revenues will only amount to $58 million.
LUX Research says that while OLEDs will drop from $18 per lumen today to $0.71 per lumen in 2020, this will not be enough as the technology will still lag behind other display technologies, and this will limit adoption. LUX Research also forecasts that flexible OLEDs on plastic substrate will be cheaper than glass - and will cost $0.18 per lumens in 2020. They say that 63% of the OLED market in 2020 will be flexible OLEDs.
LUX Research are quite pessimistic about OLEDs, and we only hope that they are wrong. OLED lighting is advancing rapidly, but of course no one knows if this will be fast enough. Nanomarkets for example predicts that the OLED lighting market will grow to $4.8 billion in 2016. Mass production will start by 2014, and one of the sectors that will lead the demand will be the automotive industry.