UBI Research says that the OLED lighting market will grow rapidly in the near future (a CAGR of 66% in 2017-2025) to reach $1.6 billion in sales by 2020. LG Display will lead the market with a market share of 53% (in terms of revenue).

OLED Lighting revenue forecast (2016-2020, UBI Research)

UBI estimates the OLED lighting market in 2016 at $114 million, and LGD's current market share is 15% (or $17 million in sales).

General indoor downright and automotive lighting are expected to be the largest two segments in the OLED lighting market. Other areas in which OLED lighting will expand into include outdoor, medical, and exhibition use.

UBI LGD OLED lighting market share chart (2016-2020)



The Automotive OLED lighting market will grow from only $3 million 2016 to $296 million in 2019 and $821 million in 2020. By 2025, automotive OLED lighting will reach $2.7 billion in sales. Indoor lighting will reach $183 million in sales in 2019 and $494 million in 2020. Following that year Indoor OLED lighting will grow faster than automotive OLED lighting - to reach $3.4 billion in sales by 2025.

UBI Research is the most optimistic analyst covering the OLED lighting market. IDTechEx, in its optimistic scenario, sees the OLED lighting market reach more than $1.8 billion only by 2025. Yole Developpement sees a $1.5 billion market as early as 2021.

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Forecast

I have serious doubt knowing that their past prediction for the previous years were completely wrong. It seems that these forecasts are just done to catch some investors or maybe to convince the last ones to not leave...Maybe, it's time to understand that these scaling forecast formula used for inorganic semi-conductor or for Oled display do not work until the issue of reliability, stability, yield, catastrophic failures of Oled lighting panels are not solved.

No doubt OLED lighting is

No doubt OLED lighting is deep within the trough of disillusionment at the moment. My guess is it will come out eventually, but this UBI forecast once again sounds way over optimistic.

Besides the issues you mentioned the biggest issue for OLED lighting is that right now nobody knows how to really make the design advantages of OLED count compared to the much better technical and cost performance of LED.

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