A couple of weeks ago, UBI Research said that OLED lighting panel shipments will grow quickly in coming years - from around $100 million in 2016 to over $2.7 billion in 2020. By 2025, OLED lighting will grab about 10% of the total lighting market.
Today UBI released some more forecasts, this time about the interior lighting market. According to UBI, starting in 2020, OLED lighting will become competitive with LED lighting, and will gain market share. By 2025, OLED will become the dominant interior lighting technology, generating $5.7 billion in revenue. Flexible OLED lighting will take up about 27% of the total OLED interior lighting market.
UBI is the most optimistic OLED lighting analyst. N-Tech Research (Nanomarkets) see the OLED lighting market reaching $1 billion in sales by 2020 and over $2.2 billion by the end of 2022, while Cintelliq sees OLED competing with LEDs in 2016, and 500 million 100x100 mm OLED lighting panels produced in 2023. IHS estimates the current OLED lighting market (at the panel level) at $2.7 million in 2014, and says that the market will only reach $26 million by 2020.
Ha! I wonder about this graph. Because I did a lot of research lately on what kind of lighting to use in my new home. And guess what the result was?
... Fluorescent tubes. Of course not the cheapest possible kind. But tubes that are used in print production because of their accurate color rendering. I found that these seem to ACTUALLY be closest to the spectrum of the sun, even though they are not marketed as "full spectrum lights". Which I've by the way found to be fraudulent at least in the case of one "True-Light" LED bulb that I bought. Not even the white point was what they claimed it would be. Nowhere close to the specification.
I tried to buy OLED but nobody seems to be selling - at least not to consumers at somewhat reasonable prices (by which I mean up to ~$400 for panels that output 2000 lumen all together).