DSCC: the OLED market will grow 19% in 2019 to reach $31 billion in revenues

DSCC estimates that the AMOLED market will grow 19% in 2019 to reach $31 billion, up from $26.5 billion in 2018. OLED revenues will continue to grow and reach $48.8 billion in 2022 (a CAGR of 16%).

OLED panel revenue by type, (2016-2022, DSCC)

Look at OLED unit shipments and area production, 2019 will see a 22% growth in unit shipments to 610 million panels and a 35% growth in area to 9 million square meters. Area shipments will grow faster than revenues as OLED selling prices will continue to decline - and as OLED TVs take up a larger share of the OLED market.

DSCC: OLED equipment spending to rebound in 2020, but decline again in 2021

DSCC says that Q3 2018 was a record quarter for display equipment spending, as sales reached $7.8 billion billion in the quarter - up 13% from Q3 2017. In the quarter five new 6-Gen OLED lines were installed in addition to a 10.5-Gen LCD fab.The top 5 equipment vendors, according to DSCC, were Canon (13.1%), Applied materials (9.6%), Tokyo Electron, Nikon and SFA Engineering.

Display equipment spending by technology (2016-2022, DSCC)

Despite the record quarter, total display spending will fall 9% in 2018 (to $21.6 billion). OLED equipment spending is expected to drop 44% in 2019 to $7 billion as mobile OLED spending slows. DSCC says that OLED spending will rebound in 2020, and will increase by 50% to reach $10.5 billion. In 2021, DSCC sees OLED spending declining again, and then rebound in 2022.

DSCC: AMOLED revenues reached $8 billion in Q3 2018

DSCC says that the OLED market saw a strong recovery in shipments in Q3 2018 - with total revenues increasing 80% from Q2 2018 (and 45% from Q3 2017) to $8 billion. The largest OLED market is the smartphone display market - which reached $6.9 million in the quarter.

OLED panel revenues, 2016-2018 (DSCC, Nov 2018)

DSCC expects revenues to reach $8.2 billion in Q4 2018 - a decrease of 7% compared to last year (but an increase of 3% from Q3). The main reason for the decline is slower Apple iPhone sales. TV revenues continue to increase strongly - to reach $585 million in Q4 (up 80% from 2017). The fastest growth was in the wearables sector - which grew to $317 million.

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CLSA lowers its china smartphone OLED production and adoption forecasts

CLSA says that as OLED displays are too expensive for many smartphone makers and lack enough differentiation to LCDs, the company is lowering its OLED adoption forecasts. CLSA now expects China's OLED smartphone shipments to total 116 million in 2018, 143 million in 2019 and 168 million in 2020. CLSA lowered its forecasts by 12-21%. In terms of penetration into the total Chinese smartphone market, CLSA sees 14% in 2018, 18% in 2019 and 21% in 2020.

Huawei Mate 20 X photo
Looking at the OLED makers, side, CLSA sees ample OLED supply in coming years, which means that expansion is likely to slow. CLSA assumed that OLED makers will achieve 70% yields and a utilization rate of 90%, which will bring all OLED makers to have a combined production capacity of around 288 million 6" panels in 2020. As demand will be only 168 million by Chinese phone makers (and remember there's also Samsung and LGD of course), this will create quite an oversupply situation in China. CLSA cuts its China OLED production forecasts by BOE, Tianma, Visionox, CSoT and Everdisplay by 23% to 26% in coming years.

IHS sees 50 million foldable OLEDs shipped in 2025

IHS says that the foldable OLED market will grow from 200,000 units in 2018 to over 50 million units by 2025, taking up 6% of the total OLED market (825 million panels) and 11% of the total flexible OLED market (476 million).

Foldable AMOLED shipments forecast (2018-2025, IHS)

IHS sees fast growth ahead for the market, but the analysts say that smartphone brands are cautious about launching foldable smartphones because the phones should be durable enough for repeated folding and thin and light enough even when supporting a larger display and battery.

CLSA: BOE plans to produce 3 million AMOLED panels in the second half of 2018

BOE is ramping up its AMOLED production, and according to CLSA its target for the second half of 2018 is to produce 3 million panels. BOE is reportedly the supplier of AMOLED panels to Huawei's Mate 20 Pro smartphone, but CLSA says that the company is struggling to find customers from other smartphone makers.

BOE Flexible AMOLED prototype photo

According to CINNO, BOE produced around 1.7 million panels in the first half of 2018 - which means that it plans to almost double its shipments in the second half of the year.

LG - we sold over 3 million OLED TVs since launching the first one in 2013

LG Electronics said that it has sold over 3 million OLED TVs, since launching its first one in 2013 - in September 2018 it has shipped over 3.2 millionth units, in fact.

LG OLED65C6P photo

LG Display is increasing its production capacity quickly, and so LG Electronics can increase its TV shipments (although today there are over a dozen other companies that use LGD's OLED TV panels, including Sony, Philips, Panasonic and Toshiba). In 2018 alone LGD expects to sell a total of 2.9 million OLED TV panels (up from 1.7 million in 2017).

ETNews: Samsung's rigid OLED production recovers to its 2017 level

According to Korea's ETNews, SDC's rigid OLED production level has recovered fully in Q3 2018 and is now even higher than the production level in Q3 2017. Most of the new demand comes from China-based smartphone producers. ETNews says that SDC's A2 factory's utilization rates were over 90% in Q3 2018 (up from about 80% in Q3 2017).

Samsung's flexible OLED production has also recovered following new shipments to Apple's iPhone XS and XS Max, but the utilization rate in SDC's A3 flexible OLED fab is still lower than last year's.

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