iSupply - AMOLED shipments soar, to reach $3.6 billion in 2015

iSupply says that AMOLED shipments are soaring (due to high-end Android phone demand). According to iSupply, in 2010 49.4 million AMOLED displays shipped bringing in a total of $892 million. This will grow to 271 million units in 2015 - to reach $3.6 billion in revenue. Challenges still ahead for AMOLED expansion include high manufacturing cost, resolution challenges, limited lifetime, poor sunlight visibility and a time-consuming manufacturing process. According to iSupply, AMOLEDs are typically 30% to 60% more expensive to make than LTPS LCD displays (which seems like an exaggeration to us).

DisplaySearch are much more optimistic about OLEDs: in their own forecasts released last month, they predict that AMOLED shipments in 2011 will reach 128 million to bring $4 billion in revenue. In 2012, AMOLED shipments will reach 212 million - and $6.4 billion in revenue. And all of this only from the mobile phone market...

iSupply: The 3.5" AMOLED in the Nokia N8 costs $39.25 (including the touch overlay)

iSupply has performed a teardown of Nokia's N8, and they say that the most expensive part is the display which costs $39.25. This includes the 3.5" AMOLED and the touch overlay. The whole phone costs $187.47 to build (and it costs $549 to buy unlocked...). The AMOLED is made by Samsung of course, while the touch layer is made by Synaptics.

Back in July, iSupply estimated that the 3.7" AMOLED in the Droid Incredible costs $31.2. We're not sure if that included the touch overlay, but in any case it's strange - the price has changed considerably. Perhaps Samsung is now charging higher prices for AMOLEDs...

iSupply: The 3.7" AMOLED in the Droid Incredible costs $31.2

iSupply has published a teardown analysis of the HTC Droid Incredible, saying that the phone costs $163 to make. They say that the AMOLED display (Samsung's 3.7" 480x800) costs $31.20. This is rather strange, as back in January, they claimed that the same display, used in Google's Nexus-One phone costs $23.5.

HTC IncredibleHTC Incredible

So maybe the costs went up (because of Samsung's short supply). Back in January, iSupply estimated that the Touch Interface costs $17.75. So maybe the cost of both the touch and the AMOLED went down, and now they cost $31.2 together?

The HTC Incredible is now shipping for Verizon's network in the US - and it costs $99 with a new service plan (if you want to use an existing plan, it'll cost $530).

3.7" AMOLED costs 32% more than a 3.7" TFT LCD, only 16% if we include the touch overlay

Just a week after telling us that the 3.7" AMOLED as used in Google's Nexus One costs $23.5, iSupply now says that the 3.7" TFT-LCD used in Motorola's Droid costs $17.75. That means that the AMOLED costs 32% more. The touchscreen overlay costs $17.75 in both the Nexus One and the Droid. This means that totally, the AMOLED touch display is only 16% more expensive than the touch TFT-LCD.

Interestingly, the iPhone 3GS' LCD is smaller than the Droid's (at 3.5") but costs more - $19.25. That means that Google's 3.7" AMOLED costs only 22% more than the smaller iPhone display.

Obviously these are just iSupply's estimates, but it's interesting anyway. 

iSupply: OLED TV shipments will enjoy a 200-times increase by 2015

iSupply say that OLED TV panel shipments will enjoy a 200-times increase in the next 6 years, but will still account for a tiny portion of the TV market. Global revenue will reach $1.8 billion in 2015, up from $10 million in 2009. Total units will be around 4.7 million.

iSupply OLED TV revenue chart 2009OLED TV revenue forecast

Strangely, they say that 25,000 units will ship in 2009. But the only OLED TVs cost around 2,500$ (Sony's XEL-1), which means that $10M in revenue equals 4,000 units...

iSupply: OLEDs for mobile phones to boom, only cost 8% more than LCDs

iSupply says the OLED displays for mobile phones (main displays) are expected to rise from 178m units in 2015 - up from 22.2m in 2009 (that's a factor of eight).

iSupply OLED mobile phone shipment forcast graphiSupply OLED mobile phone shipment forcast graph

And beyond the other allures offered by OLED, the technology is more environmentally sustainable compared to that of conventional LCDs.

OLEDs will still acount for a small part of the total market - only 6% in 2013.  iSupply says that the only factors limiting great penetratration is the limited number of suppliers and factories.

In an interesting note, iSupply says that the 2.6" OLED in the N85 costs 7.05$. An equivalent LCD would have cost 6.5$. That's only 8% more.

iSuppli: AMOLED shipments to hit 185 million by 2014

The worldwide AMOLED market will grow to 185.2 million units by 2014, rising at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 84.2%, up from 2.6 million units in 2007, according to iSuppli. Revenue is expected to grow in concert, expanding to US$4.6 billion by 2014, up at a CAGR of 83.3% from US$67 million in 2007.

In order to accelerate the process of migrating AMOLED technology from niche to mass market, multiple suppliers must add to their manufacturing resources and ramp up production quickly, Jakhanwal advised. "While mobile handsets are the obvious main target for the technology, these phones require multiple sources of suppliers with sufficient volumes to meet demand. It's unlikely that a single company will be able to fulfill this demand in the short term because no supplier presently has sufficient capacity."

iSupply: Is There Room for OLED Technology in the Television Market?

After examining Sony Corp.’s 11-inch Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) television exhibited here at iSuppli Corp.’s Flat Information Displays (FID) 2007 conference last week, there is no denying how stunning the picture is. But at just 11-inches, it’s hard to imagine a family gathering around it to watch a DVD or television show.

But because the OLED-TV market is still in its infancy, with the Sony set being the first to be manufactured and sold to consumers, it’s unreasonable to expect it to compete effectively with Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) or Plasma Display Panel (PDP) televisions at this time. However, this begs the question: Will OLED TV ever be able to match up with LCD and PDP televisions?

“It will be a challenge for OLED to catch up, given the investments that have been put into the other technologies,” said Paul Semenza, vice president of displays at iSuppli Corp., speaking at FID 2007 last week. “But there is no doubt about its performance and there is a lot of potential for the display technology, maybe in mobile applications.”

With Sony being the first to throw its hat into the OLED-TV ring, due to its introduction of the 11-inch set this month in Japan at a price of $1,800, shipment volumes are expected to be very small, targeting a small niche of well-heeled, tech-savvy consumers. And even at such a high price, Sony indicated that it is taking a loss on the sale of each OLED set, according to Vinita Jakhanwal, principal analyst for mobile displays at iSuppli.

iSupply : OLED technology to make minor inroads into TV market

Now mainly relegated to handset displays, OLED TV shipments will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 170.6% to reach 1.2 million units in 2012, up from 8,000 in 2007. Sales revenue for OLED TVs will increase to US$691 million in 2012, rising from less than US$1 million in 2007, iSuppli forecasts.

Moreover, the resolutions needed in the TV market are attainable with OLEDs. OLED TVs in larger sizes, i.e. greater than 20-inches, could be sold by the 2012 timeframe. Most likely, these TVs will use polymer panels made by inkjet printing in the largest sizes, but small-molecule OLEDs made by evaporation techniques also could be used in TVs.