DisplaySearch: OLED production capacity to grow rapidly despite high production costs

DisplaySearch says that OLED TV panels production costs are still very high, but this will not deter investments and the company forecasts rapid expansion in AMOLED capacity, as can be seen in the chart below (in which the yellow bars show AMOLED capacity while the green bar is capacity that can be used for either LCD or AMOLED production):

According to this chart dedicated AMOLED fab capacity grew from less than a million square meters in 2011 to almost four million square meters in 2013. In 2017, dedicated AMOLED capacity will reach 14 million square meters (i.e. 28 times as much capacity as in 2011).

DisplaySearch sees OLEDs leading the mobile phone display market by revenue in 2013, to reach $12.3 billion

DisplaySearch says that mobile phone display revenue will grow 55% in 2013 to $33.3 billion. The market is driven by rising smartphone display selling price and growing mobile phone shipments.

DisplaySearch also released revenue numbers per technology, and in 2013 AMOLED display will take the lead as they will account for 37% market share. LTPS LCDs will have 36.1% while a-Si LCDs will have 26.5%. Interestingly, it means that DisplaySearch estimates that mobile phone OLEDs alone will generate $12.3 billion in revenue in 2013. Earlier in 2013 they estimated that the whole OLED market will reach $11 billion in 2013. It's good to see them raise their estimates now!

DisplaySearch: most of the OLED material market growth will come from OLED TVs starting in 2014

A few weeks ago we reported that DisplaySearch forecast that OLED material revenues will reach $529 million in 2013 - and will grow to $3.4 billion in 2017. Now DisplaySearch released more information, including this interesting chart, showing their OLED material sales forecast per application:

As you can see, virtually all the growth will come from OLED TV sales. For materials sold for mobile phones, materials will actually decline after 2014. This chart include materials used for emission and common layers. DisplaySearch forecasts that only 10 million OLED TV units will be shipped in 2017. This still means a low penetration into the TV market. Of course for the OLED market 10 million by 2017 TVs represents a rapid growth in the revenue.

DisplaySearch: OLED materials revenues will grow from $529 million in 2013 to over $3.4 billion in 2017

DisplaySearch published a new edition of their Quarterly OLED Materials Report. They forecast that OLED material revenues will reach $529 million in 2013, and will grow at a fast CAGR of 67% to reach $3.4 billion in 2017. Most of the revenue growth will come from OLED TV materials.

DisplaySearch estimates that AMOLED phone panel shipments will reach over 217 million units in 2013 (up from 134 million in 2012), which will lead to a very tight supply towards the end of 2013. The total OLED market will reach $11 billion in 2013.

Merck: OLED to take a significant share of the display market, plans to become a solution provider

Merck posts an interesting presentation detailing the company's OLED business. And it includes some interesting details. So first of all, Merck says that if OLEDs advances further, it could gain a meaningful share in the TV market. In fact, they forecast OLED panels to grab 10-15% of the total display market by 2019. By surface area, the market will grow to around 50 km2, mostly from OLED TV applications.

Merck is still focused on OLED printing technologies over evaporation technologies as the technological advantages will enable cheaper large area panels. According to this presentation, in 2010 Merck started to collaborate with Epson on printable OLEDs (which is interesting as officially they announced this alliance in October 2012). Anyway Merck says that this alliance created a "significant momentum" in OLED printing technology. as you can see from the chart below which shows Merck's OLED development advances over time:

DisplaySearch: OLED TV production costs will drop significantly in the following two years, will remain expensive

DisplaySearch says that current manufacturing costs for OLED TV panels are almost seven times higher than LCD panels. They estimate the total manufacturing cost of a 55" FHD AMOLED panel to be $2,454 in Q1 2013. The high price is mostly due to low manufacturing yields.

DisplaySearch expects these yields to improve, and cost will fall significantly over the next two years, but it will still be much higher compared to LCDs. In fact they think that in the following year the cost will fall by 36%, and so in Q1 2014 the price of producing the same OLED panel will drop to a little over $1,500, or about 4.8 times the cost of an LCD panel.

DisplaySearch: AMOLED demand increasing, tight supply expected in Q4 2013

DisplaySearch says that AMOLED phone panel shipments will reach over 217 million units in 2013 (up from 134 million in 2012). This will grow AMOLED demand from 263,000 square meters in Q1 2013 to 557,000 square meters in Q1 2014. AMOLED supply/demand ratio will fall to 1% in Q4 2013 - which means that supply disruptions could lead to shortages.

According to DisplaySearch, SMD will need to run its AMOLED fabs at maximum capacity to keep up with the demand. Samsung aims to significantly extend its A2 Gen-5.5 fab capacity in 2013 and 2014, and the company may also accelerate its plans for the new A3 line.

DisplaySearch lowers their 2014 OLED TV shipments forecast to 300,000 units, sees 10% yields

DisplaySearch's Europe TV market research director, Paul Gray, says that currently OLED TV yields at LG are still very low - at about 10%. Things will improve, but it'll be slow. According to Paul, DisplaySearch now estimates that in 2014 only 300,000 OLED TVs will be sold worldwide:

This is drastically lower then their DisplaySearch's October 2012 estimates of about 1.8 million OLED TVs in 2014. In December 2012 the company said that LG and Samsung will never release commercial Full-HD OLED TVs and will wait to launch 4K ones in 2014. Of course LG did finally launch their 55" Full-HD 55EM9700 OLED TV, although sales are currently very low so you may say this isn't really commercial yet.

DisplaySearch sees a $11 billion OLED market in 2013, shows OLED vs LCD price comparison

DisplaySearch expects the AMOLED market to reach $11.3 billion in 2013, up 60% from 2012 ($6.9 billion). The market is still dominate by a single supplier (Samsung Display) and a single customer (Samsung), and it's still too early to tell whether OLEDs can really become a mainstream market.

DisplaySearch also released the interesting chart above that shows price comparison between AMOLED and LCD (a-Si and LTPS) panels. Most of the growth in 2013 will come from the 4.99" Full-HD (441 PPI) panel used by the GS4, and DisplaySearch estimates that 52 million of these panels will be produced in 2013 (over $3.2 billion in revenues).

DisplaySearch: A 4.8" HD AMOLED costs over $50, Samsung may start using AMOLED in tablets

DisplaySearch analyst Hiroshi Hayase posted about Samsung Display becoming the world's largest small/medium display maker. In his post, he notes that the average price for a 4.3" qHD (960x540) LCD was under $23, while a similar AMOLED costs over $33. A 4.8" HD AMOLED costs over $50 (a 4.7" HD LCD is only $36).

According to iSuppli, the GS4's 5" Full-HD Super AMOLED display costs $75., and the 4.8" 128-x720 AMOLED on the GS3 costs $65. These estimates include the touch panel though (embedded in the Super AMOLED displays).

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