Counterpoint - DSCC

One of our recent articles covered the OLED microdisplay industry, showing how there is an excess of capacity today, following the construction of several mass-scale production lines, mostly in China.

These new fabs were built on the promise of the AR and VR industries, hoping that the emergence of these solutions will open up a market for tens of millions of displays per year. In this new article, we look at the future of VR and AR headsets, and try to understand the real market potential for OLED displays.

• Defining AR and VR
• The current status and future of VR devices
• The role of OLED microdisplays in VR
• The future market of VR OLEDs
• AR headsets: from bird-bath video glasses to waveguide-based AI+AR information glasses
• Is there a market for OLEDs in future AR solutions?

Counterpoint (DSCC) says that OLED panel shipments declined 2% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to 2024 (but grew 5% from the last quarter).

The best performing segments are OLED monitors and laptop panels, both posting double-digit growth from 2024. Interestingly, Counterpoint updates that the new US tariffs on imported devices from China raised tariffs for entry-level models that use LCDs, and so there is higher demand for premium models - which benefits the OLED industry.

According to DSCC (Counterpoint), the global OLED evaporation materials market will grow around 7% in 2025. The market will continue to grow, and reach $28 billion by 2029, a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2029.

The OLED materials market is driven by the OLED panel industry, and it is expected that this market will grow driven by rising OLED adoption in IT devices (mostly laptops and tablets) and also driven by increased AMOLED production in China. The increase in adoption of tandem (multi-stack) based OLEDs also increase demand for OLED materials, as more material is required in such devices.

Counterpoint (DSCC) released its latest display equipment spending forecast, for OLEDs, LCDs and MicroLEDs. The total spending in the period 2020-2027 will be $77 billion, with spending in 2025 onwards mostly focused on new OLED capacity and upgrades of OLED fabs. It is mostly focused in China.

Counterpoint says that the demand for IT OLED panels is not as high as the company expected, and it sees a possibility that some of the 8.7-Gen AMOLED lines, originally intended for laptop and tablet panel production, will actually be used to produce smartphone displays. 

DSCC (Counterpoint) estimates that the global foldable smartphone market increased by only 2.9% compared to 2023, and it is set to decline slightly in 2025, mostly due to an unusually weak sales of Samsung and Oppo foldable smartphones in Q4 2024. Samsung's tough quarter was due to political instability. This will be the first year ever in which foldable OLED smartphone sales declined.

In 2026, though, DSCC forecasts a massive turnaround, as Apple is set to ship its first foldable phone, and other makers are set to launch new clamshell smartphones.

Counterpoint research says that TCL's premium TV market share has surpassed LG Electronics' share, as shipments of MiniLED-backlit LCDs grew 170% from 2023. Shipments of MiniLED TVs are now higher than the shipments of OLED TVs. The whole premium TV segment grew 38% in 2024.

Counterpoint defines premium TVs as either high-end LCDs (QD-MiniLED, QD-LCD, NanoCell, 8K LCD), OLEDs (both QD-OLED and WOLED panels) and also MicroLED TVs.

Counterpoint (DSCC) says that OLED panel revenues increased 28% in Q3 2024, and the company expects revenues in all of 2024 to grow 16% from 2023, mainly driven by growth in smartphones, TVs and IT applications.

In terms of unit shipments, Q3 2024 saw a 34% increase from Q3 2023. Shipments of OLED smartphone panels increased 43% from 2023 (and 24% in revenues). OLED TV shipments grew 48% in the quarter (36% increase in revenue). The largest increase came from laptop OLED panels that more than doubled (108%) in shipments in Q3.

According to DSCC, the foldable smartphone display market has declined for the first time in Q3 2024, and the company sees the market entering a flat state in 2024 and 2025. The market has grown fast (at least 40% per year) since 2019, but according to DSCC it will grow only 5% in 2025 and will decline by 4% in 2025. Demand will remain stable at around 22 million units per year.

DSCC says that Samsung is seeing slower than expected demand for its Galaxy Z Flip 6 smartphone, around 10% lower than the Z Flip 5 released in 2023. Almost all of Samsung's demand is in the Korean and Europrean markets. Huawei has also placed lower than expected orders for foldable OLEDs for the second half of 2024, due to the late introduction of the Mate X6 and Pocket 3 devices compared to the 2023 launch dates. The demand for its tri-foldable Mate XT is lower than expected as well.