A Lux Research analyst posted an article on Printed Electronics Now with the company's latest emerging display market forecasts. Lux sees three display technologies as emerging ones in the next 5 years: OLEDs, Quantum Dots and reflective displays. The whole group will grow at a 24% CAGR to reach $21 billion in 2020 - most of the growth will come from OLEDs, with QDs growing faster but from a smaller market in 2015.
Specifically regarding OLEDs, Lux sees the market growing from $6.2 billion in 2015 to $15 billion in 2020 - a CAGR of 19%. In 2020 smartphones will still be the leading market as OLEDs will not be able to capture a large portion of the TV market (due to high cost and differential aging issues). The OLED TV market will only reach $480 million in 2020.
Lux Research is taking a very conservative view of the OLED market. Most analysts estimate the OLED market at about $10-$15 billion in 2015 (about double the estimate of Lux Research). Allied Market Research, for example, estimates the OLED market at $37.2 billion by 2020. DisplaySearch says that the market will grow from $10.3 billion in 2014 to just over $23 billion in 2022 while UBI sees a $65 billion OLED market in 2020!
I'm sure LG Display will also disagree with Lux - after all the company just announced plans to invest $8.7 billion in a new OLED fab in Korea. LGD aims to produce over a million OLED TV panels in 2016 - which should result in an OLED TV market of about $1 billion - over twice what Lux estimates in 2020!