US-based Market Research company ElectroniCast Consultant says that the OLED lighting market is set to grow at a very fast pace (75% CAGR) in the next ten years: from $150 million in 2015 to almost $2.4 billion in 2020 and $6.7 billion in 2023.
OLED lighting revenues are expected to actually decline from 2023 to 2025 - because the average price of an OLED panel will decline faster than the growth in number of panels shipped (which will continue until 2025 at least).
ElectroniCast expects the OLED lighting market to grow beyond the "light-bulb mentality" as it will server a broad case of applications - which we cannot even think about at this stage. Some current ideas include embedding OLEDs in windows, skylights, mirrors, floors, stairs and ceiling panels.
ElectroniCast joins UBI in the optimistic OLED lighting analyst camp. UBI sees OLEDs becoming the dominant lighting technology by 2025 - as OLEDs grab about 10% of the total lighting market with almost $6 billion in panel revenues.
Other analysts are not so optimistic. N-Tech Research (Nanomarkets) see the OLED lighting market reaching $1 billion in sales by 2020 and over $2.2 billion by the end of 2022, while Cintelliq sees OLED competing with LEDs in 2016, and 500 million 100x100 mm OLED lighting panels produced in 2023. IHS estimates the 2014 OLED lighting market (at the panel level) at $2.7 million, and says that the market will only reach $26 million by 2020.