DSCC updated their display industry forecasts, saying that as LCD prices continue to fall it revises the capacity forecast downward by 6% as Display makers are delaying and cancelling LCD investments. DSCC's OLED capacity forecast is also reduced by 4% - and is now growing at a CAGR of 19% from 2016 to 2025 (the main reason is the cancellation of Visionox V2 phase 2 and LGD's E6 Phase 3).
DSCC says that OLED TV roadmap is still not clear as Chinese makers are not ready to commit to OLED TV production. DSCC does see next-generation TV capacity coming online in the future - which could be inkjet-printed OLEDs, OVJP, MicroLEDs and other potential technologies. But the next-generation display market is certainly not clear yet and DSCC sees an extended forecast during which demand will outpace supply (especially as average TV size continues to grow).
Korea will remain the leading OLED producer, but its share will drop from 90% in 2018 to 55% in 2025. If we look at the total display market, by 2025 China's capacity will be four times as large as Korea's (who will have a 15% market share).
Looking at the OLED industry in general, DSCC sees OLED capacity overtaking LCD capacity in the mobile market and reach a 65% market share in 2025 (unyielded). Flexible OLED capacity will overtake rigid OLED in 2020. From 2019 to 2025, flexible OLED mobile capacity will grow at a 16% CAGR, and rigid OLEDs at a 2% CAGR.
Flexible OLED capacity by producer 2016-2025
DSCC sees Samsung Display's lead in flexible OLED capacity shrinking from 2018-2022 as it will not invest in new capacity and existing capacity will be lower as it converts its fabs to Y-OCTA and LTPO production. In 2023-2024 Samsung will increase its capacity (when its A5 production fab begins productions) which will enable Samsung to remain the leading flexible OLED maker in the forecast period. But BOE will be a close second - growing at a 31% CAGR from 2019-2025.