DSCC expects the OLED market to rapidly grow in the near future, as AMOLED production capacity will increase at a CAGR of 41% from 2016 (5.3 million square meters) to 2021 (29.4 million square meters). OLED revenues will reach $21 billion in 2017 (a rise of 46% compared to 2016) and will reach $46 billion in 2021.
Smartphones are still the largest OLED application by far - with a 86% market share (revenues) in 2017 and 81% in 2021. The second largest application by revenues are OLED TVs, and other applications follow with a small market share - but one that will increase as supply looses in the future. If we look at shipments, then smartphones acount for 94% of OLED shipments, and the 2nd and 3rd applications are VR headsets and smart watches. OLED TV shipments will reach 6.5 million in 2021 (rising at a CAGR of 49% from 2016 to 2021).
The two main customers for OLED displays are Samsung Electronics and Apple. Apple will rise to take a market share of 38% of mobile capacity in 2018, but will decline to 25% in 2021 as other customers grow. DSCC expects Apple to continue investing in Samsung and LGD to secure its capacity. Flexible OLEDs are expected to rise and overtake rigid OLEDs in Q1 2018 on input basis and Q1 2019 on output basis.
China's OLED capacity will increase very fast, at a CAGR of 114% - and Chinese OLED makers will increase their AMOLED market share from 4% in 2016 to 34% in 2021.