DSCC: the OLED market will grow 19% in 2019 to reach $31 billion in revenues

DSCC estimates that the AMOLED market will grow 19% in 2019 to reach $31 billion, up from $26.5 billion in 2018. OLED revenues will continue to grow and reach $48.8 billion in 2022 (a CAGR of 16%).

OLED panel revenue by type, (2016-2022, DSCC)

Looking at OLED unit shipments and area production, 2019 will see a 22% growth in unit shipments to 610 million panels and a 35% growth in area to 9 million square meters. Area shipments will grow faster than revenues as OLED selling prices will continue to decline - and as OLED TVs take up a larger share of the OLED market.

OLED panel area production (2016-2022, DSCC)

​In 2022, OLED unit shipments will cross the 1 billion market for the first time. While OLED TVs will enjoy a fast growth (from 1.7 million panels in 2017 to 13.1 million panels in 2022), they will still remain a small part of the OLED market - and a small part of the total TV market (which is around 200 million panels per year).

Foldable OLEDs will generate $5.5 billion in revenues in 2022 - a 16% market share in terms of revenues, even though in terms is shipments foldable OLEDs will only grab a 5% market share. Foldable OLEDs will be larger in area than flexible and rigid OLEDs - and will also command a premium price. Even with the fast growth of foldable OLEDs, DSCC expects smartphone OLED revenues to decline in 2022 due to price pressure from smartphone makers and a persistent over supply market situation.

DSCC estimates that OLED TV panel revenues will exceed $2 billion in 2018, and reach $6 billion by 2022. Smartwatch OLED panel revenues will exceed $1 billion in 2018, and will only grow to $1.4 billion by 2022. Tablet OLED panel revenues are expected to cross $1 billion in 2020. In 2022, DSCC sees Notebook OLED revenues reaching $2.9 billion, OLED monitor revenues at $1.4 billion and automotive OLED panels at $1 billion.

Finally, DSCC discusses OLED production price per area - with some interesting information. OLED TV production cost are currently at around $770 per sqm, and this is expected to decline to $488 - still expensive compared to LCD TVs (currently at $170-200 per sqm). OLED smartphone panel are selling for around $5,850 per sqm - while smartwatch OLED costs are currently at around $42,000 per sqm. In the OLED industry as a whole, the price will decline from $3,900 per sqm in 2018 to $2,100 per sqm in 2022.

Posted: Dec 15,2018 by Roni Peleg