DSCC - Page 2

DSCC estimates that the market for OLED evaporation materials (i.e. OLED stack materials) will reach $1.7 billion in 2023, and will grow to $2.7 billion in 2027 (a 11% CAGR from 2023). If UDC will succeed to commercially introduce a blue phosphorescence material, revenues can even be much higher.

OLED materials used in TV applications (and other large-area applications) will grow from $305 million in 2023, to $492 million in 2027, a 13% CAGR. DSCC also sees very fast growth in material used to produce tandem-structure IT displays, which will grow at a 79% CAGR to reach $443 million in 2027.

DSCC estimates that foldable smartphone shipments reached 7 million units in Q3 2023, up 16% from last year and 215% from last quarter, as Samsung successfully launched the ` and Z Fold 5 phones, and other smartphone brands from China also ramped up their foldable smartphone sales.

Samsung's market share in the smartphone market was 72%, followed by Huawei (9%) and Honor (8%). DSCC expects foldable smartphone sales to fall 35% in the next quarter (but rise 47% compared to last year) on lower Samsung shipments and delays in new product announcements. In 2023, DSCC sees foldable smartphone shipments to reach 15.8 million units in total.

DSCC reports that according to its information, OLED panel shipments in Q3 2023 increased 14% from last year (and 18% from the previous quarter) to reach 205 million units. There are positive signs that inventory has started to rebalance for some categories.

OLED smartphone shipments increased 12% over last quarter (and 25% from last year), while OLED TV shipments continue to be soft, and dropped 14% from last quarter and 40% (!) from last year.

DSCC shared their estimation about display fab utilization (LCD and OLEDs), with some interesting comments. The slowdown in the industry, according to DSCC, is effecting all display makers, but the slowdown in demand for OLEDs is more severe and persistent. The industry is starting to recover, but this is a bumpy ride as the total capacity still far outstrips demand, and DSCC sees a slowdown in Q4 2023.

DSCC says that the slowdown for large-screen displays bottomed out towards the end of 2022, the slowdown in mobile devices only hit bottom in early 2023. There is still a weak demand for rigid OLEDs, mostly because of the lower demand for smartphones - but also because China-based flexible OLED makers are lowering prices to make them more competitive with glass-based OLEDs.

DSCC says that OLED smartphone shipments will total 585 million units in 2023, a 0.3% decline from 2023 in terms of shipments. Revenues will total $29 billion, a 11% decline from 2023. The soft demand for smartphones is due to a slow Chinese market, high inventories in the first half of 2023 and the global macroeconomic environment.

For flexible OLEDs, DSCC expects a 14% growth in 2023 (shipments) and a 9% decline in revenues - as average sale price has dropped 20%. The industry saw aggressive price cuts by Chinese phone makers - to the point where a flexible OLED made in China is cheaper than a rigid OLED made in Korea (by SDC). The market share of flexible OLED smartphones will reach 75% in 2023 out of the total OLED smartphone market.

DSCC estimates that OLED revenues in 2023 will be $36.1 billion - down 13% from last year. Just a few months ago DSCC's forecast for 2023 was $38.9 billion. This is the second year that the OLED market is contracting. In terms of shipments, there will be a 5% decrease in 2023. Looking forward to 2024, DSCC sees the market starting to recover, as demand for IT displays, TVs and smartphones will increase.

Looking at specific markets in 2023, DSCC says that OLED smartphone shipments will remain flat, but will drop 11% in revenues - as the demand for higher-end flexible displays is lower than in 2022. The only positive is the foldable display market, where shipments will increase 33% in 2023 compared to last year. 2023 also experiences a big drop in demand for OLED TVs - DSCC sees shipments declining 31% in 2023. The same goes for laptop OLEDs - a 32% decrease in sales in 2023.

DSCC expects the AMOLED stack material market to grow 4% in 2023, to $1.4 billion, and to reach $2.18 billion in 2027, that's a 12% CAGR from 2023 to 2027. In 2022, the market declined by 10%. The forecast does not include any UDC revenues from blue PHOLED materials, which means that if UDC succeeds in commercializing its blue material, revenues could be higher by hundreds of millions of dollars.

DSCC says that demand for OLED TVs will continue to decline in 2023. In 2022, revenues of OLED TV revenues declined by 17%, and in 2023 revenues will decline 3% further. Growth will resume, though, in 2024, and in 2023-2027 the market will grow at a CAGR of 13%.

DSCC says that OLED panel revenues will decline 7% in 2023 (to $38.9 billion), the second consecutive year that the OLED market is seeing a decline in sales. The largest declines will be in the OLED TVs and laptops segments.

The OLED smartphone market will actually grow 4% in unit sales, but revenues will decline 5%. The OLED TV market will decline 29% in 2023 in both revenues and units. OLED laptop unit sales will decline by 15%. All other segments, including AR/VR, automotive and tablets, will grow in sales and revenues in 2023. 

DSCC says that BOE's market share in the flexible (and foldable) smartphone OLED market has risen to 27% in Q1 2023. BOE flexible and foldable OLED panel sales grew 81% in Q1 2023 compared to last  year, as the company enjoys growing sales to Apple, Huawei, Oppo, Realme, Vivo and ZTE. BOE is mostly taking market share from Samsung and LG, while Tianma's market share is also on the rise.

DSCC estimates that flagship smartphone shipments grew 17% in the first quarter, with flexible OLED smartphone shipments growing 18% and foldable ones growing 4%.